On June 11, 2026, anticipation surrounding SpaceX's public debut intensified as prediction markets indicated a potential surge, with Hyperliquid pricing its SpaceX crypto-traded IPO shares at $167, a 20% increase from the official $135 initial offering. This speculative upward movement occurs as the company prepares to become the largest initial public offering in history, having raised $75 billion from the sale of 555.6 million shares to underwriters.
The expected initial market capitalization for SpaceX stands at $1.77 trillion, a figure that would immediately position it ahead of major entities like Tesla, which held a market value of approximately $1.72 trillion late Thursday. Polymarket traders are actively betting on SpaceX crossing the $2 trillion market cap threshold, reflecting a strong speculative interest in its future performance.
SpaceX Crypto-Traded IPO Expectations on Hyperliquid
Hyperliquid, a prominent crypto betting market offering synthetic exposure to SpaceX stock, currently indicates shares trading at $167. This valuation suggests market participants anticipate a classic 20% IPO pop on the first day of trading, reflecting robust confidence within the decentralized finance sector regarding the company's immediate post-listing trajectory. Such an early surge would place the SpaceX crypto-traded IPO in an elite category among public offerings.
Despite this optimistic outlook from crypto prediction markets, a degree of skepticism persists among broader market observers regarding SpaceX's ability to sustain a valuation above $2.2 trillion. Analysts assign less than a 50-50 chance for the company to close above this figure, highlighting the inherent volatility and speculative nature of such high-profile debuts. A close above $2 trillion would, however, place SpaceX among a select group of five other U.S. companies—Nvidia, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, and Amazon—that currently boast valuations exceeding this benchmark.
Analyst Scrutiny of a $1.77 Trillion Valuation
The initial valuation of $1.77 trillion for the SpaceX crypto-traded IPO has drawn considerable scrutiny from financial analysts. Morningstar analysts, for instance, pointed out that this valuation represents approximately 94 times the company's revenue, a stark contrast to Meta's 22x and Amazon's 18x at their respective IPOs. This elevated multiple suggests a significant reliance on future growth projections to justify its current pricing.
Morningstar further estimates Starlink's global addressable market at less than 10% of SpaceX's internal projection, placing it at $129 billion globally compared to the company's claim of $1.6 trillion. These differing projections underscore the challenges in accurately assessing the long-term financial viability and growth potential of SpaceX's diverse ventures, from satellite internet to advanced rocketry. The analysts project a 7.5x revenue growth for Starlink to $85 billion by 2035, underpinned by niche broadband, enterprise use cases, and carrier partnerships.
Elon Musk's Potential Trillionaire Status Post-IPO
The successful launch of the SpaceX crypto-traded IPO and its subsequent market performance could propel Elon Musk, already the world’s wealthiest individual, into trillionaire status. As of Thursday afternoon, Musk’s net worth stood at approximately $795 billion, encompassing his holdings across Tesla, SpaceX, and other ventures. The anticipated IPO is poised to significantly augment his personal wealth.
Post-IPO, Musk will retain substantial control, with his voting stake in SpaceX expected to be north of 82%. He is, however, subject to a one-year lock-up period, prohibiting him from selling shares in the company immediately following its public listing. This strategic move aligns with standard IPO practices to ensure market stability and investor confidence. The broader market anticipates further high-profile initial public offerings later this year, including those from AI heavyweights Anthropic and OpenAI, as the tech landscape continues its rapid evolution.